‘Normal’ first summit between Japan’s Ishiba and Trump deemed a success with Donald Trump targeting a trimming of the US’ deficit in its trade with Japan, tariffs against Tokyo cannot be discounted, analysts say.
The United States appears satisfied with its ally Japan’s goal of steadily increasing defence spending, following a meeting in Washington last week between Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Donald Trump, which observers have called a success.
Although tariffs were not addressed in the joint statement issued after the talks between Ishiba and Trump at the White House, Japan was still likely to be concerned about such levies, observers said.
In their first summit on Friday, the leaders affirmed Washington’s commitment towards Japan’s defence, including through nuclear deterrence, to counter China. They also discussed further multilateral defence cooperation.
While pushing Tokyo to invest in American energy and technology, Trump made clear that he wanted to slash Washington’s US$68 billion trade deficit with Japan, arguing that the issue could be resolved without resorting to tariffs.
Before the meeting, there were concerns in Japan that Trump might insist on a significant increase in defence spending. At the talks, however, Trump refrained from making such demands and instead praised Japan’s plan to raise its defence spending to 2 per cent of gross domestic product.
Japan had long capped defence expenditure at 1 per cent of GDP, but in late 2022 pledged to gradually increase the level to 2 per cent by 2027.
Kazuto Suzuki, a professor of international political economy at the University of Tokyo, said it appeared Trump had accepted the target and there was “less emphasis on China and defence”.
“The main objective of this meeting was not just trade and China, but also about Nippon Steel and the abductees issue,” he said, adding that the meeting was deemed a success given how “normal” it turned out to be.
According to Suzuki, there were initial concerns that Trump might deviate from his prepared notes and turn “hostile” on Ishiba, a political enemy of the late former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe.
“Conducting the meeting as normally as possible was the major objective,” he added.
During the meeting, Trump announced that Japan’s Nippon Steel was dropping its US$14.1 billion acquisition of the Pittsburgh-based US Steel and would instead be making an “investment, rather than a purchase”.
The Japanese firm’s attempted takeover of US Steel was previously blocked by former US president Joe Biden on national-security grounds.
The issue of Japanese being abducted by North Koreans was also raised, according to Japanese media, which quoted the relative of one of the abductees expressing satisfaction that “US support was gained” and that both countries would “join forces against North Korea’s human rights violations”.
Abe was said to have enjoyed strong ties with Trump during the Republican’s first term in office and used this advantage to advocate for Japanese interests on various issues, such as North Korea and trade. In December, Trump and his wife Melania hosted a private dinner for Abe’s widow Akie at their Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.
Yoichiro Sato, a professor of Asia-Pacific studies at Japan’s Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University, said one successful outcome for Japan during the meeting was the assurance from Trump that Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty would also apply to the disputed Diaoyu Islands, which Japan calls the Senkaku Islands.
The article states that both parties recognise that an armed attack against either side in the territories administered by Japan would pose a threat to peace and safety, and they will take collective action to address this common danger.
For the first time, the leaders also included in their joint statement explicit support for Taiwan’s admission to international groups such as the World Health Organization, Sato noted.
While the tariff issue was not mentioned in the joint statement, Sato said Trump had already spoken about a “global tariff” on semiconductors to be announced around February 18.
“This will no doubt affect Japan, as well as major East Asian producers like Taiwan and South Korea,” Sato said.
“Whether Japan will be named – like Canada, Mexico, and China were – is uncertain at this point,” he said, adding that if the European Union was targeted in the next round of Washington’s tariffs, it was possible Japan would be named at a later date.
If so, Japan’s automobile and steel industries would be “highly vulnerable”, according to Sato, who said any decision by Washington on tariffs might be linked to Nippon Steel’s investment in US Steel.
‘Like every other ally’
Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, warned that Washington may make additional requests in the coming months if Tokyo does not take steps to reduce the trade deficit, such as by increasing energy imports from the US.
“But at this stage, Tokyo is like every other ally and adversary of the US, they are just waiting to see what the US demands are and attempting to prepare for them the best they can,” Nagy said.
On Sunday, Ishiba identified liquefied natural gas, steel, artificial intelligence and automobiles as areas that Japanese companies could invest in the US, and also promised to raise such investments to US$1 trillion.
Last year, Japan accounted for the highest foreign direct investment in the US at US$783.3 billion, followed by Canada and Germany, according to the most recent US Commerce Department data.
Nagy said the US-Japan alliance, which spans more than seven decades, had very strong advocates across the political spectrum and within the community of experts that advised Trump on his policy choices.
“I believe it has not weakened but strengthened because of shared interests and needs,” he said.
Take care!
Prof. Carl Boniface
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